Verstappen let alone by Perez: Red Bull was naive to hope for improvement

Verstappen showed yet again in England that he is invaluable to Red Bull Racing. The RB20 was not the best car in Silverstone, but with skill, Verstappen finished second and even chased victory. With an overtaking manoeuvre on Norris on the first lap and choosing the ideal time for intermediates and slicks, Verstappen put himself in a good position.

The contrast is huge with Sergio Perez. Every weekend there is a different excuse. This time it was his inferior qualifying and team's failed strategy in the race. In fact, it comes down to the same thing every time, as it has come down to the same thing for years: Perez is not fast enough in qualifying.

Why Perez's poorer performance is no surprise

And that should no longer be a surprise. After all, Perez has never been good at qualifying. Even at Force India/Racing Point, Perez mostly lost the qualifying duel to teammates like Nico Hulkenberg and Esteban Ocon. Perez compensated for that for a midfield team by driving unique races, especially on street circuits. Then he kept tyres alive better than the drivers around him and drove surprisingly to the podium several times.

Since his chance with Red Bull Racing at the front of the grid, however, Perez appears less able to surprise. This is partly because at the top you are under a magnifying glass every week, but also because the competition is stronger. Surprising as a midfield driver means being better in the race than Hulkenberg, Ocon, Magnussen and Gasly. Performing week in week out at the front of the grid means performing better than drivers like Hamilton, Verstappen, Leclerc and Norris. That's a different level.

Where Perez in the midfield was able to make up for his lack of a good qualifying performance in the race, he struggles to do that at the front. Perez is good in the race, but no better than the drivers of Mercedes, McLaren or Ferrari. If you already start behind those drivers due to poor qualifying and you are no better in the race, the current results are no surprise.

In qualifying, he has been at least four tenths off Verstappen every year since 2021. Things seemed to improve for a while in 2022, but once Verstappen got to grips with the new car, the difference became like before. With the field getting closer, there are more and more cars between Verstappen and Perez at race time.

Whereas Mercedes held up the position of the second driver every year from 2017 to 2022, Red Bull Racing laid down its second driver too soon. Valtteri Bottas was never given a multi-year deal at Mercedes. Every year he had to show he was still the best man at Lewis Hamilton's side. This kept the Finn on his toes and meanwhile Mercedes could keep an eye on the market every year. Pascal Wehrlein and Esteban Ocon were deemed not good enough, George Russell was finally ready for promotion after three years at Williams.

What Red Bull did wrong

Red Bull Racing acted prematurely with Perez. When the Mexican was in good form in early 2022, he was offered a new deal through 2024. When Perez suddenly started performing less after signing his new contract, Red Bull had nowhere to go. Although pressure mounted internally and Perez enjoyed another upturn in early 2023, Perez never quite lived up to expectations.

To everyone's surprise, Red Bull did the same at the start of 2024. Another new deal for Perez, even though the Mexican was now not even in good form. That poor form has continued and is now causing Red Bull Racing to risk losing the constructors' title.

Perez, therefore, despite a new deal, is said to be on the cusp and may be dropped from the team as early as this season. A strange move by Red Bull and certainly not out of luxury. Indeed, Daniel Ricciardo should then be the replacement, but what has he shown since his return to Red Bull to make one believe he is an upgrade over Perez? The same goes for Yuki Tsunoda, although given Perez's condition at the moment, he doesn't seem to be able to do much worse either.

Red Bull had hopes that Perez would improve, but those hopes could be described as naive. Perez is 34 and therefore not a driver who will still have a steep learning curve. Throughout his career, 'Checo' already showed that qualifying is not his strength. Outside of brief upsurges at the start of 2022 and 2023, Perez also did not show an upward trend in the qualifying duel relative to Verstappen.

Red Bull should have started looking for someone who can qualify well at a much earlier stage, so that there is at least someone closer to Verstappen on saturday. Now they are looking for a fallback, but for a top team fighting for the world title, that does not look well.