How did Red Bull let it get this far with Perez?

In 2018, Red Bull Racing's top drivers were surprised by Daniel Ricciardo. The Australian was presented with a contract in which all of Ricciardo's wishes were met. Christian Horner and Helmut Marko knew Ferrari and Mercedes were not interested, so they assumed Ricciardo would surely sign on. It turned out to be a misconception: Ricciardo chose Renault.

Horner and Marko could hardly believe that Ricciardo chose Renault, and the plan in terms of Ricciardo's succession showed it: there was none. In 2016, 2017 and 2018, Red Bull had possibly one of the strongest, if not the strongest driver duo on the Formula 1 grid. The tide quickly turned.

Who will be Ricciardo's replacement?

Ricciardo's successor was sought at sister team Toro Rosso. Pierre Gasly had just finished one full season in F1 at Toro Rosso, in which he had performed solidly but again had not made a major impression. A year before, Marko had deemed him too light for F1 at all and held Gasly for another year in Super Formula after a GP2 title. A year later, he was suddenly good enough for a top F1 team? Carlos Sainz, who had three years of Toro Rosso and one year of Renault experience to his name, was passed over by Red Bull. Sainz left for McLaren.

It turned out to be a misjudgement of sorts. Gasly was far from being ready for a top team, frustrated the team by knowingly choosing his own setup and caused a lot of damage with several crashes. After six months, Gasly was dropped back to Toro Rosso.

Gasly's successor was an even more remarkable choice by Red Bull Racing if possible. Alexander Albon was moved up, after six months of driving in Formula 1. A year before the promotion to Red Bull Racing, Albon was not even in the picture for an F1 seat. The Thai only came back into the picture at Red Bull when a spot suddenly became vacant due to Gasly moving on. Six months later, Albon was suddenly good enough for a top F1 team.

Whereas Gasly was parted after only six months, Red Bull took a little more time with Albon. Albon was probably also helped by his Thai nationality and the fact that Red Bull's Thai owner was happy to have a Thai driver in the car. Yet Albon could not manage alongside Verstappen in a year and a half either; the task simply proved too big for a young driver.

Perez the best alternative

In that respect, Red Bull made the first logical decision since Ricciardo's departure in late 2020 with the appointment of Sergio Perez. Perez was freed up by his departure from Racing Point and met the ideal profile for a second driver at Red Bull. Perez had plenty of experience and had delivered sterling performances over the years at teams in the middle and sub-top.

Given their history, Red Bull's choice of Perez over Nico Hulkenberg seemed only logical. After all, Perez had regularly proven he could achieve podium finishes with less equipment, while Hulkenberg always missed out.

Since Perez's appointment, however, Red Bull have not looked for alternatives. In 2021 and 2022, it quickly became clear that Perez was an upgrade over Albon and Gasly but could not match Max Verstappen and other top-tier drivers.

The biggest pain point was and is Perez's qualifying. From day one, the gap between Verstappen and Perez on Saturday was between three and six tenths. If you dominate the sport as a team then that does not matter much, but if it is close together, Perez is too far away to compete at the front of the race. This caused Red Bull Racing to have to leave the constructors' world title to Mercedes in 2021, and Red Bull are also in danger of being in trouble in 2024.

Red Bull and Christian Horner speak of a down phase for Perez, but that is incorrect. In fact, it is not a dip, but a trend. The difference in qualifying in this dip is no greater than we have seen before, but similar to previous years. The difference is that the competition is now sitting closer and taking advantage of that gap.

Furthermore, labelling the problem as a dip is also unfair because Perez always disappoints at this stage of the season. Why? Because it is traditional circuits where he does not come into his strength as much and there are also more frequent changeable conditions at this stage of the season. At those circuits and in those conditions, Perez never excels, so that he does not now is no surprise.

Perez will surely show better form again in Azerbaijan, Singapore, Qatar and Abu Dhabi, but over a full year, it is not good enough. At Racing Point, he impressed with his racecraft and very good weekends from him stood out. At the top, however, you are under the magnifying glass every weekend and under that pressure Perez does not know how to perform, especially on Saturday.

Verstappen is on his own at Red Bull Racing

Red Bull's failure to acknowledge this problem leaves Verstappen on his own. Red Bull has had several opportunities in recent years to get Verstappen a better teammate but has failed to do so. In particular, someone who can qualify better than Perez is a must so that there are fewer cars between Verstappen and his teammate even before the race starts.

Perez initially had a deal through 2022, which made sense with the new regulations in 2022. After 2022, however, Red Bull failed to enter the market for a better second driver. Even before the Monaco Grand Prix, Perez signed a new two-year deal, locking him in until 2024.

This meant Red Bull missed the opportunity to bring back Alexander Albon when it turned out that, with some time and trust at Williams, he did turn out to be a good driver after all. Albon was still viable for Red Bull at the end of 2022, but with a new deal at Williams, now no longer.

The end of 2022 also did not see the return of a Red Bull icon. Sebastian Vettel left Aston Martin and was thus free on the market, but Red Bull did not strike. Free Fernando Alonso, who made the move to Aston Martin from Alpine, was also not picked up by Red Bull Racing.

In addition, Red Bull also failed to bring back Carlos Sainz. Sainz has proven at McLaren and Ferrari to be and strong driver for a top team and most will acknowledge that Sainz would be an upgrade. However, Perez was preferred to Sainz, while with such a fast car at your disposal, should you be able to convince Sainz to take a seat next to Verstappen again?

Another option also running free was Nico Hulkenberg. After all, Hulkenberg does show he can excel on a Saturday. He used to do the same as Perez's teammate. In races, Hulkenberg may not have as many outliers up top, but he may be closer on a Saturday. However, Hulkenberg's deal with Audi has ruined that chance too.

And so Red Bull Racing is stuck with Sergio Perez. And not just Perez, but Verstappen too, as he is too often on his own. Whereas Verstappen sees his rivals all coming in pairs, he has to fight the battle alone. The rare times he did have support from Perez in the four years they have been working together can be counted on two hands at most, and that is still counting optimistically.