Red Bull defy their own fate: This could be the Austrians' downfall

8 June at 12:00

Of course, it was 'only' a free practice session. And indeed, the power unit that gave up in smoke was not the new engine with which Max Verstappen will run the Canadian Grand Prix. Still, too much levity should certainly not be taken lightly about what Red Bull Racing ran into during the opening day in Montreal. Gradually, a pattern of problems is becoming apparent and in the long run, this could start to hurt the Austrians.

It seems like an eternity ago: Red Bull and Verstappen arrived at a track - no matter which one - and the combination was arrow-fast and reliable from the first moment. By the end of the weekend, Verstappen was almost invariably standing with the most important trophy in his hands. When all this was? In 2023, when Verstappen truly drove to nineteen victories in Formula 1 without a hitch.

In the current season, the tally stands at five wins in eight Grands Prix. Verstappen's win ratio has plummeted considerably compared to a year earlier, and it is not because Verstappen is in a form crisis. His team Red Bull Racing are slowly doing just that. While the competition has moved closer, the RB20 is not yet the superior car that its predecessor was.

The RB20 is no longer the dominant car

By now, much has been said about it: the RB20's problems with high kerbs and bumps in the tarmac. It is a problem that has not been solved one, two, three. Moreover, Helmut Marko already indicated that the correlation between the simulator and the reality on the track is not as accurate as before. Fine-tuning the setup may therefore more often only happen during the race weekend, instead of Red Bull being able to go fast on the road immediately on a Friday.

This has already become painfully obvious in recent weeks. How often did Verstappen complain about yet another failed Friday recently? Regularly Red Bull managed to avert disaster on Saturday and Sunday (thanks in part to Verstappen's exceptional driving skills), sometimes it also failed. The latter should cause concern. Surely too many cracks are starting to appear in what was once such a strong bastion.

Luck stops for Red Bull once

Of course - especially if conditions remain wet in Montreal - Verstappen could still drive to victory in the Grand Prix on Sunday. But if there is something going on every weekend, the luck will stop once and for all. Moreover, the Red Bull team are now entering a dangerous phase. It is very tempting to come up with more and more updates, at the risk of sinking deeper and deeper into the downwards spiral as a team. Look at Mercedes; a team that have been starting the season with the wrong design for years and drifting further and further away from the right direction during the season with wrong updates.

Of course, the internal problems at Red Bull do not help either. In any company where there is turmoil at the top, that eventually trickles down to the shop floor. That Marko said last week that he has agreed "a truce" with Christian Horner shows that there is still something lurking beneath the surface. Certainly if the results drop, all that is going to explode at some point.

For Red Bull, it will be interesting in the coming period. Among both drivers and constructors, the team still leads the world standings. But if the Austrians continue to defy fate in the current manner, it will really end at some point.