F1 Data Analysis | Was Perez disadvantaged by Red Bull at the Dutch GP?

How Perez got into the lead

The formation lap was just beginning at Circuit Zandvoort when it started to rain. All the drivers started on slicks as the rain fell harder and harder. The teams' forecasting equipment proved not so accurate. While most thought the rain would soon disappear, it caused quite a stir in the first few laps.

Verstappen started the Dutch Grand Prix well and opted to stay out himself. As the leader in the race, diving in first is a big risk, as you have the most to lose. Apart from that, the team also thought the rain would be gone in no time. Therefore, survival was the message for Verstappen, who stayed outside like the rest of the top six.

However, Red Bull were smart enough to spread the odds and did bring in seventh-placed Perez. By the time Perez dived into the pits, he was in P7 and 3.5s behind Verstappen. Little to lose, everything to gain, Checo must have thought. When Perez returned to the track on intermediates, the gap to leader Verstappen was 27.7s.

At that point, Verstappen regretted staying out on slicks. The Zandvoort circuit became really slippy, and the Dutchman lost a lot of time. So, at the end of that lap, Verstappen pitted. At that moment, Perez was only 14.1s behind him. In less than a lap, Perez had already made up 13 seconds. Once he completed the lap, Perez eventually had a 17.6s lead over Verstappen as the reigning world champion emerged from the pit lane.

Due to the rain, it was chaos on the track. Halfway through lap three, Perez grabbed the lead and had a sizeable buffer over his teammate. In P11, Verstappen then had a lot of drivers to overtake. Verstappen made up some of his deficit on the inters, and the gap was down to 10.8s.

However, that gap increased when Perez was given free air (midway through lap three). Perez could keep pushing, while Verstappen had to pass one driver after another on the soft tyres and had Guanyu Zhou and Pierre Gasly ahead of him on the intermediates. Those drivers went in at the same time as Perez and had taken full advantage of this. As a result, the gap increased again to 13.3s.

On lap four, that picture remained the same. Verstappen was stuck behind Gasly and drove a 1.25.251. This made him nine-tenths slower than Perez and increased the gap to 14.2s. On lap five, however, the picture of the race tilts.

How Verstappen closed the gap on Perez at Zandvoort

From lap five onwards, Verstappen gained ground over Perez. Oddly enough, Verstappen did that whilst stuck behind Gasly. On that lap, Zhou and Gasly are even faster than Perez. The Mexican led with a 1.24.100, and Verstappen drove a 1.23.461, closing the gap to 13.5s.

At the start of the sixth lap, Verstappen passed Gasly and accelerated. Verstappen drove a 1.22.503 on that lap and closed the gap to Zhou, who drove a 1.23.522. Both are faster than the man in the lead, who only managed a 1.24.392. The gap between Verstappen and Perez is down to 11.7s.

At the start of lap seven, Verstappen had free air as he overtook Zhou. On that lap, Verstappen drove a quick lap of 1.22.116. Perez made a mistake and lost a whopping four seconds in one lap. Perez drove a 1.26.345, reducing the gap to 7.4s.

Verstappen smelt blood, and on his home track, he then drove a 1.23.2, a 1.23.3 and a 1.23.6. As the track dried out, Perez came under increasing pressure. Indeed, he completed those laps in 1.24.5, 1.24.4 and another 1.24.5, leaving the gap at the end of lap ten at just four seconds. And that is a gap that can be closed with an undercut.

Why Red Bull gave an undercut to Verstappen

On lap 11, it was time for slicks. Albon stayed on his slicks and is the fastest in the field, while Fernando Alonso and Carlos Sainz also switched to the dry weather tyre. So it was time for Red Bull Racing to take action, but Perez's slow times put Red Bull in a quandary because who do you bring in first?

Normally, you would say that the driver lying in P1 gets preference, which is the case in most cases. Christian Horner revealed afterwards in front of GPblog that Perez could not go in first because the danger of an undercut was lurking. That danger came mainly from Alonso and Sainz. Alonso was 32 seconds behind Verstappen when the Dutchman dived into the pits, Sainz at 37 seconds. Bringing Verstappen in first keeps the two Spaniards at bay. The downside: the order changes as Perez comes out behind Verstappen after his pit stop.

Was this really necessary? Yes, it appears when the data is studied closely. Verstappen dove into the pits 2.7s behind Perez. So, on the final lap, Verstappen made up over another one second on his teammate. Verstappen entered the track eleven seconds ahead of Alonso, but his tyres were already up to temperature, so the gap narrowed quickly.

Coming out of the pits, Verstappen was 23.2s behind Perez. Only twenty seconds of that is left when Perez entered the pits. Perez eventually entered the track three seconds behind Verstappen, but more importantly, three seconds ahead of Alonso. So Red Bull was right. Had Verstappen stayed out longer, it could have been very tight with Alonso, as Verstappen had about the same three-second gap to Perez. In addition, Gasly (6s), Sainz (7s) and Zhou (8s) are also close. The decision to bring in Verstappen earlier is therefore explainable.

Perez can blame himself

Red Bull will have been especially apprehensive about Fernando Alonso. The Spaniard drove great at Zandvoort and was extremely difficult to pass. Had Verstappen been stuck behind him, achieving a 1-2 would have been very difficult. Red Bull acted in the team's interest, which worked out adversely for Perez.

Red Bull acted correctly in the end, as they were one and two after the pit stops. Perez can point at the team but should mostly point at himself. He himself was the reason the gap had become so small. A great strategy by Red Bull gave him a 17.6s lead, which was down to 14.2s at the end of lap four due to traffic for Verstappen. So, for Perez to then manage to lose 12 of that 14-second lead in seven laps is really his own fault. Perez had a shot at victory, but Verstappen was simply in a class of his own. That Perez then forfeits P2 because of his mistakes at the end of the race will only further confirm to Red Bull that they made the right choice.