Verstappen not going to Mercedes: who is Wolff seriously considering now?

Why Verstappen was the dream candidate

Toto Wolff seemed to have things well in hand when Mercedes announced the contract extensions of Hamilton and George Russell. It was initially communicated that both signed a new deal until 2025, but in Hamilton's case there was an exception. Hamilton had a 1+1 deal, allowing both parties to part ways after 2024.

Hamilton took advantage of that option and will make the switch to Ferrari in 2025. It was a calculated risk from Wolff, who has to reckon with Andrea Kimi Antonelli. The young talent must eventually join Mercedes and so Wolff cannot hand out two long contracts. In 2025, however, it creates a plight.

Indeed, the question is whether Antonelli is ready for a move to F1 now, let alone to a team with Mercedes' ambitions. That is why the upheaval at Red Bull Racing came as a godsend. Wolff saw his chance and went out of his way to pamper the Verstappens. A chance to snatch the best driver of the moment away from the big rival, Wolff obviously did not want to miss. However, performance on the track fell short, leaving Wolff unable to bring Verstappen to the team as early as 2025.

Who are seriously in the picture as Hamilton's replacement?

And with Verstappen having decided to stay with Red Bull Racing in 2025, Wolff has to go to the drawing board again. The first name to resurface is Antonelli. Mercedes are no longer the top team of recent years and thus a place easier for a rookie than a few years ago.

Still, there are doubts about the still very young Italian. Antonelli made the jump to Formula 2 and although he has been performing fairly consistently there, his performances do not yet cry out for such a big promotion. Wolff will patiently wait out the season, see how Antonelli shows in the F1 tests and see what development he makes.

The big problem around Antonelli is also the lack of alternatives for him. Whereas Red Bull can stable their talents at Visa Cash App RB, Mercedes do not have that luxury position. Williams also seem to have closed the door, given the talks with Valtteri Bottas and Carlos Sainz about the seat next to Alexander Albon. So if Mercedes do not have a place for Antonelli, he cannot debut in F1 in 2025.

Should Mercedes still think during 2025 that a switch is too early for Antonelli, there are a number of names who would like to make the switch. Carlos Sainz has been mentioned many times, but is out of the picture for now due to his demands. The Spaniard wants a multi-year deal and can also count on a hefty salary at Audi. He does not have to count on either at Mercedes.

The same applies to a lesser extent to Esteban Ocon. He too is on Wolff's list as an interim solution. Not surprisingly, as Ocon is still a Mercedes junior and is still managed by Mercedes. However, Ocon has learned from 2019. Then he waited a long time for the Renault seat and ended up completely missing out when Renault opted for Daniel Ricciardo. Ocon does not seem to want to take that risk again, so he will be more inclined to sign a deal with Haas or Audi.

The third and final name linked to Mercedes is that of Mick Schumacher. In Monaco, it became clear that Schumacher is in the picture as Logan Sargeant's replacement. He could finish the season at Williams and thus put himself in the picture for a seat at Mercedes. Schumacher is already Mercedes' reserve driver and, along with Antonelli and Russell, is driving several tests in old F1 cars. Although Mercedes denies using it as a 'shootout' between the drivers, the team would be crazy not to juxtapose the drivers' data at all.

Why Wolff is still thinking about Verstappen

In everything, however, it is clear that Wolff is working on a bigger master plan: bringing in Verstappen. That may have failed for 2025, but with the new engine and car regulations in 2026, the cards will be shuffled again. With doubts over Red Bull Powertrains and the departure of Adrian Newey, there is a good chance the Verstappens will want to make the switch in 2026.

To have a place free for Verstappen in 2026, Wolff is currently making sure he is not too quick to commit other drivers for longer. Antonelli must eventually get into that Mercedes, with Verstappen at his side. It is therefore not surprising that all the options in the picture are mainly in the picture as a temporary solution for 2025.